If you’ve ever noticed that fuel prices seem to rise and fall in waves, you’re not imagining it. Queensland fuel prices follow a predictable cycle that, once understood, can save you hundreds of dollars per year at the pump.
What is the Fuel Price Cycle?
The fuel price cycle refers to the regular pattern of price increases and decreases that occur at petrol stations across Queensland. Unlike some states where prices change randomly, Queensland (particularly South East Queensland) experiences a predictable “sawtooth” pattern where prices gradually decrease over several weeks, then spike sharply before repeating.
Historically, this cycle ran on a roughly 6-week (42-day) pattern in Brisbane and surrounding areas. However, recent data shows the cycle has become more variable, sometimes stretching to 50+ days or compressing to just 30 days.
Key Insight
The best time to fill up is at the bottom of the cycle, just before prices spike. This can save you 20-30 cents per litre compared to filling up at the peak.
How the Cycle Works
Here’s what happens during a typical Queensland fuel cycle:
The Spike (Day 1-2)
Prices jump dramatically, often by 15-30 cents per litre overnight. This usually happens mid-week. Major brands like BP, Shell, and Ampol typically lead the increase.
The Plateau (Day 3-7)
Prices remain high for several days as most stations match the increased prices. This is the worst time to fill up.
The Gradual Decline (Day 8-35)
Competition kicks in and prices slowly decrease. Independent stations often drop prices first, followed by larger chains trying to stay competitive.
The Bottom (Day 36-42)
Prices hit their lowest point. This is your window to fill up! Prices can be 20-30 cents lower than the peak. Use Fuel Daddy to spot when prices bottom out.
Regional Differences Across Queensland
The fuel cycle doesn’t affect all of Queensland equally. Here’s how different regions experience price movements:
Brisbane & Surrounds
Brisbane and nearby suburbs like Ipswich, Logan, and Caboolture follow the cycle most closely. High competition means prices drop faster during the decline phase. Costco at Ipswich often has the lowest prices in the region.
Gold Coast
The Gold Coast generally follows Brisbane’s cycle but with a slight delay. Tourist areas like Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach tend to have higher prices overall. Head inland to Nerang or Helensvale for better deals.
Sunshine Coast
Similar to Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast follows Brisbane with a delay. Coastal suburbs like Maroochydore and Noosa charge premium prices. Nambour and Buderim are often cheaper.
Regional Queensland
Areas like Toowoomba, Rockhampton, Townsville, and Cairns have less pronounced cycles. Prices are generally higher due to transport costs, and swings are smaller. However, competition still drives some variation.
Best Days to Buy Fuel
While the exact timing varies, research and our data suggest certain days are consistently better for filling up. For a detailed breakdown, check out our guide on the best day and time to buy fuel in Queensland.
Best Days
Tuesday & Wednesday are typically the cheapest days, especially in the middle of a cycle’s decline phase.
Worst Days
Thursday & Friday often see price spikes as stations increase prices before the weekend rush.
Important Note
These are general patterns, not guarantees. Always check current prices on Fuel Daddy before filling up, as the cycle timing can shift.
How to Use Fuel Daddy to Beat the Cycle
Here’s a simple strategy to maximise your savings:
- Monitor prices weekly – Check Fuel Daddy’s live map every few days to spot trends.
- Don’t fill up at the peak – If you see prices have just spiked, wait if you can. Even a few days can save you significantly.
- Fill up completely at the bottom – When prices hit their lowest, fill your tank completely to maximise savings.
- Compare nearby stations – Even at the bottom of the cycle, prices vary. Use our map to find the cheapest option near you.
- Stack with discounts – Combine low-cycle prices with supermarket discount dockets for maximum savings. Learn more in our guide to maximising fuel discount dockets.
Calculate Your Savings
Let’s put real numbers to this. Use our fuel calculators to see your potential savings:
Example Savings
If you fill a 50L tank and save 20 cents per litre by timing the cycle:
- Per fill: $10 saved
- Per month (2 fills): $20 saved
- Per year: $240+ saved
That’s real money back in your pocket, just by filling up at the right time!
Different Fuel Types & The Cycle
The cycle affects all fuel types, but not equally. If you’re unsure which fuel type is best for your vehicle, read our comprehensive guide on E10 vs Premium fuels.
- Unleaded 91 – Follows the cycle most closely
- E10 – Similar pattern, but typically 3-5 cents cheaper than 91
- Premium 95 & 98 – Follow the same pattern with a consistent premium
- Diesel – Less volatile, smaller swings, but still follows the general pattern
Why Does the Cycle Exist?
The fuel cycle exists due to a combination of factors:
- Competition – Stations gradually undercut each other during the decline phase
- Wholesale costs – Major retailers eventually need to restore margins
- Consumer behaviour – Motorists tend to buy more when prices are low, depleting stocks
- Coordination – While not collusion, stations watch each other and tend to spike prices around the same time
The ACCC monitors fuel pricing in Australia and publishes regular reports on fuel market behaviour. Queensland’s mandatory price reporting scheme (which powers Fuel Daddy’s data) was introduced to increase transparency and help consumers make informed decisions.
Key Takeaways
- Queensland fuel prices follow a roughly 42-day cycle (though it varies)
- Fill up at the bottom of the cycle to save 20-30 cents per litre
- Tuesday and Wednesday are typically the cheapest days
- Avoid filling up just after prices spike (usually Thursday/Friday)
- Regional areas have less pronounced cycles but still vary
- Always check live prices before filling up
