Iran War Fuel Crisis: How Many Days of Fuel Does Brisbane Have Left?

If you've filled up your car in the last week, you've already felt it. Petrol prices across Brisbane have jumped sharply, with the average unleaded price rising from around 171 c/L to over 219 c/L almost overnight. And the worst may not be over yet.

The cause is no mystery. On February 28, 2026, a joint U.S.-Israeli military operation struck targets across Iran, including the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader. Iran's retaliatory strikes hit a major Saudi refinery and a Qatari LNG facility, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued warnings that effectively shut down shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that normally carries roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supply.

Within days, tanker traffic through the strait dropped by 70%, then effectively ground to a halt. Oil markets reacted immediately. Brent crude surged past $100, then $108, with some overnight trading sessions pushing U.S. WTI near $120 a barrel. It's the largest disruption to global energy supply since the 1973 oil embargo — and for a country like Australia that imports over 90% of its refined fuel, the consequences are serious.

What's Happening Right Now

Oil Prices Have Doubled the Previous Disruption Record

The current conflict has taken roughly 9 million barrels of oil per day off the global market, either through direct strikes on infrastructure or producers taking precautionary shutdowns. That represents around 20% of global supply — more than double the previous record disruption set during the 1956 Suez Crisis.

Iraq, one of the world's largest oil producers, has been forced to shut down production at some of its biggest fields because it simply has nowhere to store the oil it can no longer export through the strait.

The Strait of Hormuz: The World's Most Important Chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz is just 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest point, but it's the gateway for roughly 20% of global oil supply and a significant share of the world's liquefied natural gas. When Iran's IRGC warned vessels against passage, shipping effectively stopped. Over 150 tankers anchored outside the strait to wait, and within a few days, transit went to near zero.

The downstream effects have been immediate. South Asian countries that depend heavily on Gulf LNG — Pakistan, Bangladesh and India — face acute energy shortages. European gas markets are also under strain, with Qatar's LNG exports halted after the strike on its facility.

For Australia, the supply chain is even more precarious. Our refineries in Victoria and Queensland import crude, much of it processed through Asian refineries that themselves rely on Middle Eastern oil. When the strait closes, the disruption cascades across the entire supply chain.

Australia's Fuel Reserve Problem

36 Days of Petrol. 34 Days of Diesel. That's It.

As of early March 2026, Australia's fuel stockpile sits at approximately:

The government says this is the largest stockpile we've had in 15 years. But context matters. The International Energy Agency requires member nations to hold 90 days of fuel reserves. Australia has been non-compliant with that obligation since 2012.

To make things more complicated, some of our "reserves" aren't even in Australia. Under an arrangement with the United States, Australia leases space in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and those barrels are counted towards our IEA obligations. But in a crisis where global shipping is disrupted, getting American-stored oil to Brisbane or Townsville isn't exactly straightforward.

Why Are We So Exposed?

Australia exports enormous quantities of energy — coal, LNG, uranium — but remains structurally dependent on imported liquid fuel. Over 90% of the refined petrol and diesel we put in our cars comes from overseas, largely from Asian refineries.

We have just two operating refineries left in the country (one in Victoria, one in Queensland), down from eight a decade ago. Those two produce roughly half of our daily transport fuel needs. The rest arrives on tankers that take 2-4 weeks to reach our shores — assuming the shipping routes are open.

The Maritime Union of Australia has been blunt about the situation, warning that decades of successive governments allowed our domestic fuel capacity to be dismantled. Strategic reserves were effectively offshored. And now, with the world's most critical oil chokepoint closed, the vulnerability is fully exposed.

What This Means for Brisbane Drivers

Prices Are Going Up — Probably Further

Brisbane's average unleaded price currently sits around 219 c/L, with individual stations ranging from roughly 186 c/L at the cheapest to above 241 c/L at the most expensive. That spread is enormous, and it means where you fill up matters more than ever.

Use Fuel Daddy's live map to compare prices in your area. Even in a rising market, the difference between the cheapest and most expensive station in suburbs like Aspley, Wynnum, or Capalaba can be 30-50 c/L. On a 60-litre tank, that's $18-30 per fill-up.

Analysts expect prices to continue climbing if the strait remains closed. Some forecasts suggest Australian unleaded could push past 250 c/L in coming weeks if the situation doesn't improve.

Diesel Drivers: Pay Extra Attention

Diesel is the lifeblood of Australian freight, agriculture and mining. With just 34 days of diesel reserves and prices climbing rapidly, the flow-on effects could hit grocery prices, construction costs and farm inputs across Queensland.

If you drive a diesel vehicle, it's worth keeping your tank above half at all times. Check diesel prices at stations near Rocklea, Acacia Ridge and Eagle Farm where truck-stop pricing can sometimes undercut suburban servos.

Should You Panic Buy?

No. The government has explicitly urged Australians not to rush to the servo. Energy Minister Chris Bowen has stressed that Australia's current stockpile is adequate for the immediate term and that there is no need for panic buying.

But here's the irony: panic buying itself creates shortages. Reports from regional New South Wales show that some service stations are already running dry — not because supply has been cut off, but because demand surged 4x when motorists rushed to fill up. One small Queensland distributor reported being allocated just 10% of its usual daily fuel from the Brisbane terminal because retail locations had been stripped bare by hoarders.

How the Supply Chain Actually Works

From Gulf Oil Fields to Your Local Servo

Understanding why this crisis hits Australia so hard requires tracing the supply chain:

1. Crude extraction — Oil is pumped from fields in the Middle East, primarily Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, UAE, Kuwait and Qatar.
2. Strait of Hormuz transit — Tankers carry crude through the strait to reach global markets. This is now effectively blocked.
3. Asian refining — Much of Australia's fuel comes from refineries in Singapore, South Korea and Japan, which themselves depend on Middle Eastern crude.
4. Tanker shipment to Australia — Refined fuel is loaded onto tankers for the 2-4 week voyage to Australian terminals in Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne and Fremantle.
5. Terminal distribution — Fuel arrives at terminals (like the ones at Pinkenba and Lytton in Brisbane) and is distributed to service stations by road tanker.

When any link in that chain breaks — particularly the Strait of Hormuz — the effects cascade all the way to the bowser at your local station in Indooroopilly, Redcliffe or Ipswich.

What About Regional Queensland?

Regional areas are even more vulnerable than Brisbane. Towns like Rockhampton, Mackay, Cairns and Townsville sit at the end of longer supply chains and typically carry less local stock. Prices in regional QLD already run 10-20 c/L higher than Brisbane on a good day.

Agriculture is particularly exposed. Queensland's farming operations depend heavily on diesel for machinery, transport and irrigation. With diesel reserves at just 34 days nationally, a prolonged disruption could affect everything from cattle transport to sugarcane harvesting.

The Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast are somewhat shielded by proximity to Brisbane's terminals, but both regions are already seeing prices climb in lockstep with the capital.

The Bigger Picture: How Did We Get Here?

A Decade of Warnings Ignored

This crisis didn't come out of nowhere. Energy security experts, defence analysts and industry bodies have warned for over a decade that Australia's reliance on imported fuel and thin reserves made us dangerously exposed to exactly this kind of geopolitical shock.

Between 2012 and 2024, six of Australia's eight refineries closed. Domestic crude production has been declining for years. And while the government established a minimum stockholding obligation in 2023 and boosted reserves to their current 15-year high, we still sit at less than half the IEA's 90-day benchmark.

The uncomfortable truth is that Australia is one of the world's largest energy exporters — we ship vast quantities of coal and LNG to Asia — but we can't keep our own cars running for more than five weeks without imports.

What Happens Next?

Scenarios for Brisbane Fuel Prices

The trajectory from here depends almost entirely on how the conflict in Iran unfolds:

What You Can Do Right Now

1. Track prices daily — Use Fuel Daddy's live fuel map to find the cheapest station near you. In a volatile market, prices can vary by 50+ c/L between stations in the same suburb.
2. Fill up smart — Keep your tank above half. If you see a price that looks reasonable compared to the market, take it rather than gambling on a drop.
3. Combine trips — Reduce unnecessary driving. This isn't just about saving money — if supply genuinely tightens, conservation matters.
4. Consider fuel type — If your car runs on E10, you may find slightly lower prices than ULP 91 or premium. Check our E10 vs premium guide to see if your car is compatible.
5. Watch the cycle — Even during a crisis, Brisbane's fuel price cycle still plays a role. Prices still dip on certain days — just at a higher baseline.

Frequently Asked Questions